ECONOMETRICS OF NATIONAL SECURITY AND DEFENSE OF UKRAINE

Abstract

The article provides the importance of Ukraine's economic development to ensure national security, highlights the main internal and external threats to Ukraine's national security, such as: hybrid economic war, the "needle" of loans from the International Monetary Fund, communal tariffs, opening the gas market in Ukraine, inefficient introduction of the circulation of domestic agricultural lands and insufficient use of the capabilities of the country's economy. The cyclical nature of economic development is practically proved by distinguishing four phases of economic development of the studied countries for the last ten years, weak efficiency of economic policy of Ukraine and possible applied mechanisms of economic growth. An econometric analysis of GDP of Ukraine and countries that occupy the largest share in Ukrainian imports of goods, the budget of Ukraine and the budget of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine using the method of least squares and even linear regressions, calculated the intensity of changes in Ukraine's economic processes. The model of gross domestic product of Ukraine depending on the gross domestic product of China, Poland, Russia, Turkey, Germany, Italy, Belarus, the United States and France (nine-factor model), as well as the model of Ukraine's defense budget depending on the domestic gross domestic product product, budget expenditures, taxes, minimum and average wages and inflation (seven-factor model). On the example of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine as a public sector institution, the registration algorithm for economic (additional) activities by military units and the distribution of revenues to increase the special fund of the state budget of Ukraine and create recovery of the country economy in general.